Stake Ranked Episode 5 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageJust Players pick
50%57%
Aritmije · 0 mapsedge Just Players +7%Just Players · 33 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%41%
Aritmije · 0 mapsedge Aritmije +9%Just Players · 25 maps
AncientAritmije ban
50%59%
Aritmije · 0 mapsedge Just Players +9%Just Players · 23 maps
NukeAritmije pick
50%35%
Aritmije · 0 mapsedge Aritmije +15%Just Players · 16 maps
CacheJust Players ban
50%31%
Aritmije · 0 mapsedge Aritmije +19%Just Players · 9 maps
AnubisJust Players ban
50%50%
Aritmije · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Just Players · 8 maps
DefaultAritmije ban
50%64%
Aritmije · 0 mapsedge Just Players +14%Just Players · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAritmije remove Default
2. BanJust Players remove Cache
3. PickAritmije take Nuke
4. PickJust Players take Mirage
5. BanJust Players remove Anubis
6. BanAritmije remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (50% / 41%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct8:13
Aritmije 44%Just Players 56%
The model gave 56% on Just Players — the map was taken by Just Players.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
Aritmije 40%Just Players 60%
The model gave 60% on Just Players — the map was taken by Just Players.
Model check result
Model favoriteJust Players · 65%
Series resultJust Players 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2