Urban Riga Open Season 6 · BO1
result vs prediction
ASTRAL#97 in the world · win 13:7series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 13:7
atputiesloss 7:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientatputies ban
62%50%
ASTRAL · 22 mapsedge ASTRAL +12%atputies · 0 maps
MirageASTRAL ban
50%29%
ASTRAL · 12 mapsedge ASTRAL +21%atputies · 3 maps
NukeASTRAL ban
33%43%
ASTRAL · 11 mapsedge atputies +10%atputies · 3 maps
Dust2possible decider
53%50%
ASTRAL · 13 mapsnearly even +3%atputies · 0 maps
InfernoASTRAL ban
40%50%
ASTRAL · 11 mapsedge atputies +10%atputies · 0 maps
Anubisatputies ban
62%50%
ASTRAL · 9 mapsedge ASTRAL +12%atputies · 0 maps
Defaultatputies ban
60%50%
ASTRAL · 1 mapedge ASTRAL +10%atputies · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanASTRAL remove Inferno
2. Banatputies remove Ancient
3. BanASTRAL remove Nuke
4. Banatputies remove Anubis
5. BanASTRAL remove Mirage
6. Banatputies remove Default
DeciderDust2 (53% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
ASTRAL 62%atputies 38%
The model gave 62% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Model check result
Model favoriteASTRAL · 72%
Series resultASTRAL 13:7
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1