Urban Riga Open Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
ASTRAL#97 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BRUTE#74 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BRUTE pick
53%68%
ASTRAL · 13 mapsedge BRUTE +15%BRUTE · 15 maps
AncientBRUTE ban
66%50%
ASTRAL · 25 mapsedge ASTRAL +16%BRUTE · 0 maps
Nukepossible decider
38%60%
ASTRAL · 12 mapsedge BRUTE +22%BRUTE · 11 maps
MirageBRUTE ban
53%50%
ASTRAL · 13 mapsnearly even +3%BRUTE · 8 maps
InfernoASTRAL ban
40%64%
ASTRAL · 11 mapsedge BRUTE +24%BRUTE · 7 maps
AnubisASTRAL pick
62%40%
ASTRAL · 9 mapsedge ASTRAL +22%BRUTE · 1 map
OverpassASTRAL ban
50%70%
ASTRAL · 0 mapsedge BRUTE +20%BRUTE · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanASTRAL remove Overpass
2. BanBRUTE remove Ancient
3. PickASTRAL take Anubis
4. PickBRUTE take Dust2
5. BanBRUTE remove Mirage
6. BanASTRAL remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (38% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed7:13
ASTRAL 73%BRUTE 27%
The model gave 73% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
ASTRAL 26%BRUTE 74%
The model gave 74% on BRUTE — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Dust2prediction correct7:13
ASTRAL 34%BRUTE 66%
The model gave 66% on BRUTE — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Model check result
Model favoriteASTRAL · 54%
Series resultBRUTE 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3