Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
ASTRAL#97 in the world · win 1:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientKreazion ban
68%40%
ASTRAL · 21 mapedge ASTRAL +28%Kreazion · 1 map
Dust2Kreazion pick
50%50%
ASTRAL · 12 mapsnearly even +0%Kreazion · 2 maps
MirageASTRAL ban
43%40%
ASTRAL · 10 mapsnearly even +3%Kreazion · 1 map
AnubisASTRAL pick
57%50%
ASTRAL · 10 mapsedge ASTRAL +7%Kreazion · 0 maps
NukeASTRAL ban
36%50%
ASTRAL · 10 mapsedge Kreazion +14%Kreazion · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
55%60%
ASTRAL · 7 mapsedge Kreazion +5%Kreazion · 1 map
DefaultKreazion ban
60%50%
ASTRAL · 1 mapedge ASTRAL +10%Kreazion · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanASTRAL remove Nuke
2. BanKreazion remove Ancient
3. PickASTRAL take Anubis
4. PickKreazion take Dust2
5. BanKreazion remove Default
6. BanASTRAL remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (55% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
ASTRAL 60%Kreazion 40%
The model gave 60% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Model check result
Model favoriteASTRAL · 83%
Series resultASTRAL 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1