Urban Riga Open Season 6 · BO1
result vs prediction
ASTRAL#97 in the world · loss 6:13series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 6:13
Noir Verse#124 in the world · win 13:6The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNoir Verse ban
62%38%
ASTRAL · 22 mapsedge ASTRAL +24%Noir Verse · 4 maps
MirageASTRAL ban
50%56%
ASTRAL · 12 mapsedge Noir Verse +6%Noir Verse · 5 maps
Dust2possible decider
53%43%
ASTRAL · 13 mapsedge ASTRAL +10%Noir Verse · 3 maps
NukeASTRAL ban
36%67%
ASTRAL · 10 mapsedge Noir Verse +31%Noir Verse · 5 maps
InfernoNoir Verse ban
40%40%
ASTRAL · 11 mapsnearly even +0%Noir Verse · 1 map
AnubisNoir Verse ban
67%60%
ASTRAL · 8 mapsedge ASTRAL +7%Noir Verse · 1 map
CacheASTRAL ban
50%33%
ASTRAL · 0 mapsedge ASTRAL +17%Noir Verse · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanASTRAL remove Nuke
2. BanNoir Verse remove Inferno
3. BanASTRAL remove Mirage
4. BanNoir Verse remove Ancient
5. BanASTRAL remove Cache
6. BanNoir Verse remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (53% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed6:13
ASTRAL 57%Noir Verse 43%
The model gave 57% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by Noir Verse.
Model check result
Model favoriteASTRAL · 53%
Series resultNoir Verse 6:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1