Stake Ranked Episode 5 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
ASTRAL#97 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rune Eaters#114 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
40%50%
ASTRAL · 6 mapsedge Rune Eaters +10%Rune Eaters · 22 maps
AncientASTRAL pick
60%50%
ASTRAL · 11 mapsedge ASTRAL +10%Rune Eaters · 14 maps
MirageASTRAL ban
57%60%
ASTRAL · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Rune Eaters · 16 maps
InfernoRune Eaters ban
50%38%
ASTRAL · 2 mapsedge ASTRAL +12%Rune Eaters · 9 maps
NukeASTRAL ban
62%67%
ASTRAL · 9 mapsedge Rune Eaters +5%Rune Eaters · 2 maps
AnubisRune Eaters pick
56%71%
ASTRAL · 5 mapsedge Rune Eaters +15%Rune Eaters · 3 maps
CacheRune Eaters ban
50%50%
ASTRAL · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Rune Eaters · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanASTRAL remove Mirage
2. BanRune Eaters remove Cache
3. PickASTRAL take Ancient
4. PickRune Eaters take Anubis
5. BanRune Eaters remove Inferno
6. BanASTRAL remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct9:13
ASTRAL 44%Rune Eaters 56%
The model gave 56% on Rune Eaters — the map was taken by Rune Eaters.
Cacheprediction missed16:19
ASTRAL 53%Rune Eaters 47%
The model gave 53% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by Rune Eaters.
Model check result
Model favoriteASTRAL · 55%
Series resultRune Eaters 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2