Urban Riga Open Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
ASTRAL#97 in the world · win 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SINQU REHTIloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientASTRAL pick
60%50%
ASTRAL · 21 mapedge ASTRAL +10%SINQU REHTI · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%60%
ASTRAL · 12 mapsedge SINQU REHTI +10%SINQU REHTI · 1 map
InfernoSINQU REHTI ban
40%40%
ASTRAL · 11 mapsnearly even +0%SINQU REHTI · 1 map
MirageASTRAL ban
47%50%
ASTRAL · 11 mapsnearly even -3%SINQU REHTI · 0 maps
NukeASTRAL ban
31%50%
ASTRAL · 9 mapsedge SINQU REHTI +19%SINQU REHTI · 2 maps
AnubisSINQU REHTI ban
67%50%
ASTRAL · 8 mapsedge ASTRAL +17%SINQU REHTI · 0 maps
DefaultSINQU REHTI pick
60%50%
ASTRAL · 1 mapedge ASTRAL +10%SINQU REHTI · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanASTRAL remove Nuke
2. BanSINQU REHTI remove Anubis
3. PickASTRAL take Ancient
4. PickSINQU REHTI take Default
5. BanSINQU REHTI remove Inferno
6. BanASTRAL remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:5
ASTRAL 28%SINQU REHTI 72%
The model gave 72% on SINQU REHTI — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
ASTRAL 63%SINQU REHTI 37%
The model gave 63% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by ASTRAL.
Model check result
Model favoriteASTRAL · 78%
Series resultASTRAL 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2