IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Astralis#15 in the world · loss 5:13series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 5:13
9z#17 in the world · win 13:5The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Astralis ban
43%60%
Astralis · 3 mapsedge 9z +17%9z · 6 maps
Ancient9z ban
57%56%
Astralis · 3 mapsnearly even +1%9z · 5 maps
Mirage9z ban
57%38%
Astralis · 3 mapsedge Astralis +19%9z · 4 maps
Inferno9z ban
50%50%
Astralis · 2 mapsnearly even +0%9z · 4 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%63%
Astralis · 2 mapsedge 9z +13%9z · 4 maps
OverpassAstralis ban
33%63%
Astralis · 2 mapsedge 9z +30%9z · 4 maps
AnubisAstralis ban
50%40%
Astralis · 0 mapsedge Astralis +10%9z · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAstralis remove Anubis
2. Ban9z remove Mirage
3. BanAstralis remove Dust2
4. Ban9z remove Inferno
5. BanAstralis remove Overpass
6. Ban9z remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (50% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct5:13
Astralis 38%9z 62%
The model gave 63% on 9z — the map was taken by 9z.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 61%
Series result9z 5:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1