Stake Ranked Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Astralis#15 in the world · win 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
FaZe#14 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAstralis pick
68%46%
Astralis · 15 mapsedge Astralis +22%FaZe · 9 maps
CacheFaZe pick
69%67%
Astralis · 9 mapsnearly even +2%FaZe · 8 maps
NukeAstralis ban
33%63%
Astralis · 8 mapsedge FaZe +30%FaZe · 4 maps
Dust2FaZe ban
22%44%
Astralis · 5 mapsedge FaZe +22%FaZe · 5 maps
Miragepossible decider
43%55%
Astralis · 3 mapsedge FaZe +12%FaZe · 7 maps
InfernoFaZe ban
42%50%
Astralis · 8 mapsedge FaZe +8%FaZe · 0 maps
AnubisAstralis ban
33%50%
Astralis · 2 mapsedge FaZe +17%FaZe · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAstralis remove Anubis
2. BanFaZe remove Inferno
3. PickAstralis take Ancient
4. PickFaZe take Cache
5. BanFaZe remove Dust2
6. BanAstralis remove Nuke
DeciderMirage (43% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
Astralis 74%FaZe 26%
The model gave 74% on Astralis — the map was taken by Astralis.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
Astralis 21%FaZe 79%
The model gave 79% on FaZe — the map was taken by FaZe.
Cacheprediction correct13:9
Astralis 53%FaZe 47%
The model gave 53% on Astralis — the map was taken by Astralis.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 54%
Series resultAstralis 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3