Stake Ranked Episode 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Astralis#17 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 0:2
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAstralis pick
72%61%
Astralis · 14 mapsedge Astralis +11%fnatic · 19 maps
Cachefnatic pick
73%75%
Astralis · 11 mapsnearly even -2%fnatic · 20 maps
Infernopossible decider
43%61%
Astralis · 10 mapsedge fnatic +18%fnatic · 14 maps
Miragefnatic ban
50%40%
Astralis · 8 mapsedge Astralis +10%fnatic · 11 maps
Dust2Astralis ban
33%33%
Astralis · 5 mapsnearly even +0%fnatic · 11 maps
AnubisAstralis ban
33%71%
Astralis · 2 mapsedge fnatic +38%fnatic · 10 maps
Nukefnatic ban
50%50%
Astralis · 10 mapsnearly even +0%fnatic · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAstralis remove Anubis
2. Banfnatic remove Nuke
3. PickAstralis take Ancient
4. Pickfnatic take Cache
5. Banfnatic remove Mirage
6. BanAstralis remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (43% / 61%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct6:13
Astralis 45%fnatic 55%
The model gave 55% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
Astralis 65%fnatic 35%
The model gave 65% on Astralis — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 74%
Series resultfnatic 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2