StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Astralis#15 in the world · win 2:1series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:1
FOKUS#48 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeAstralis ban
30%42%
Astralis · 6 mapsedge FOKUS +12%FOKUS · 8 maps
AncientAstralis pick
63%54%
Astralis · 4 mapsedge Astralis +9%FOKUS · 9 maps
Dust2Astralis ban
43%62%
Astralis · 3 mapsedge FOKUS +19%FOKUS · 9 maps
OverpassFOKUS pick
29%67%
Astralis · 3 mapsedge FOKUS +38%FOKUS · 5 maps
MirageFOKUS ban
57%38%
Astralis · 3 mapsedge Astralis +19%FOKUS · 4 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%63%
Astralis · 2 mapsedge FOKUS +13%FOKUS · 4 maps
CacheFOKUS ban
60%50%
Astralis · 1 mapedge Astralis +10%FOKUS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAstralis remove Dust2
2. BanFOKUS remove Mirage
3. PickAstralis take Ancient
4. PickFOKUS take Overpass
5. BanFOKUS remove Cache
6. BanAstralis remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (50% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct10:13
Astralis 29%FOKUS 71%
The model gave 71% on FOKUS — the map was taken by FOKUS.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
Astralis 62%FOKUS 38%
The model gave 62% on Astralis — the map was taken by Astralis.
Nukeprediction missed13:1
Astralis 37%FOKUS 63%
The model gave 63% on FOKUS — the map was taken by Astralis.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 74%
Series resultAstralis 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3