IEM Atlanta 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Astralis#15 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Legacy#7 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Astralis ban
50%60%
Astralis · 2 mapsedge Legacy +10%Legacy · 1 map
MirageLegacy pick
60%67%
Astralis · 1 mapedge Legacy +7%Legacy · 2 maps
AncientAstralis pick
60%40%
Astralis · 1 mapedge Astralis +20%Legacy · 1 map
Infernopossible decider
40%60%
Astralis · 1 mapedge Legacy +20%Legacy · 1 map
NukeLegacy ban
60%40%
Astralis · 1 mapedge Astralis +20%Legacy · 1 map
OverpassLegacy ban
33%50%
Astralis · 2 mapsedge Legacy +17%Legacy · 0 maps
AnubisAstralis ban
50%60%
Astralis · 0 mapsedge Legacy +10%Legacy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAstralis remove Anubis
2. BanLegacy remove Overpass
3. PickAstralis take Ancient
4. PickLegacy take Mirage
5. BanLegacy remove Nuke
6. BanAstralis remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (40% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
Astralis 37%Legacy 63%
The model gave 63% on Legacy — the map was taken by Legacy.
Nukeprediction missed6:13
Astralis 72%Legacy 28%
The model gave 72% on Astralis — the map was taken by Legacy.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 64%
Series resultLegacy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2