BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 Finals · BO3
result vs prediction
Astralis#15 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZ#3 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeMOUZ pick
25%69%
Astralis · 8 mapsedge MOUZ +44%MOUZ · 12 maps
AncientAstralis pick
58%55%
Astralis · 8 mapsnearly even +3%MOUZ · 7 maps
Dust2Astralis ban
38%58%
Astralis · 4 mapsedge MOUZ +20%MOUZ · 8 maps
MirageAstralis ban
57%62%
Astralis · 3 mapsedge MOUZ +5%MOUZ · 9 maps
InfernoMOUZ ban
57%58%
Astralis · 3 mapsnearly even -1%MOUZ · 8 maps
Overpasspossible decider
33%67%
Astralis · 2 mapsedge MOUZ +34%MOUZ · 5 maps
CacheMOUZ ban
57%50%
Astralis · 3 mapsedge Astralis +7%MOUZ · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAstralis remove Dust2
2. BanMOUZ remove Cache
3. PickAstralis take Ancient
4. PickMOUZ take Nuke
5. BanMOUZ remove Inferno
6. BanAstralis remove Mirage
DeciderOverpass (33% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
Astralis 57%MOUZ 43%
The model gave 57% on Astralis — the map was taken by Astralis.
Mirageprediction correct9:13
Astralis 42%MOUZ 58%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
Astralis 30%MOUZ 70%
The model gave 70% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 59%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3