CCT 2026 Europe Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Atreides#147 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAtreides pick
72%63%
Atreides · 21 mapedge Atreides +9%ex-RUSTEC · 4 maps
Dust2Atreides ban
33%64%
Atreides · 8 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +31%ex-RUSTEC · 7 maps
Infernopossible decider
59%40%
Atreides · 13 mapsedge Atreides +19%ex-RUSTEC · 1 map
Ancientex-RUSTEC ban
56%50%
Atreides · 12 mapsedge Atreides +6%ex-RUSTEC · 0 maps
Nukeex-RUSTEC ban
55%25%
Atreides · 7 mapsedge Atreides +30%ex-RUSTEC · 4 maps
Overpassex-RUSTEC pick
43%50%
Atreides · 10 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +7%ex-RUSTEC · 0 maps
CacheAtreides ban
40%50%
Atreides · 6 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +10%ex-RUSTEC · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAtreides remove Dust2
2. Banex-RUSTEC remove Ancient
3. PickAtreides take Mirage
4. Pickex-RUSTEC take Overpass
5. Banex-RUSTEC remove Nuke
6. BanAtreides remove Cache
DeciderInferno (59% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:4
Atreides 71%ex-RUSTEC 29%
The model gave 71% on Atreides — the map was taken by Atreides.
Nukeprediction missed11:13
Atreides 76%ex-RUSTEC 24%
The model gave 76% on Atreides — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Anubisprediction missed7:13
Atreides 50%ex-RUSTEC 50%
The model gave 50% on Atreides — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Model check result
Model favoriteAtreides · 58%
Series resultex-RUSTEC 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3