NODWIN Clutch Series 9 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Atreides#147 in the world · win 2:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
G2 Ares#103 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAtreides pick
75%50%
Atreides · 8 mapsedge Atreides +25%G2 Ares · 8 maps
InfernoG2 Ares pick
63%64%
Atreides · 4 mapsnearly even -1%G2 Ares · 7 maps
AncientG2 Ares ban
67%50%
Atreides · 5 mapsedge Atreides +17%G2 Ares · 4 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%57%
Atreides · 6 mapsedge G2 Ares +7%G2 Ares · 3 maps
Dust2Atreides ban
29%56%
Atreides · 3 mapsedge G2 Ares +27%G2 Ares · 5 maps
AnubisAtreides ban
50%67%
Atreides · 0 mapsedge G2 Ares +17%G2 Ares · 2 maps
NukeG2 Ares ban
67%50%
Atreides · 2 mapsedge Atreides +17%G2 Ares · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAtreides remove Anubis
2. BanG2 Ares remove Nuke
3. PickAtreides take Mirage
4. PickG2 Ares take Inferno
5. BanG2 Ares remove Ancient
6. BanAtreides remove Dust2
DeciderOverpass (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct12:16
Atreides 40%G2 Ares 60%
The model gave 60% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Ancientprediction correct16:14
Atreides 69%G2 Ares 31%
The model gave 69% on Atreides — the map was taken by Atreides.
Infernoprediction missed13:2
Atreides 49%G2 Ares 51%
The model gave 51% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by Atreides.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Ares · 51%
Series resultAtreides 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3