ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora#6 in the world · win 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
9z#17 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
57%56%
Aurora · 10 mapsnearly even +1%9z · 5 maps
NukeAurora pick
80%50%
Aurora · 6 mapsedge Aurora +30%9z · 8 maps
Inferno9z ban
55%40%
Aurora · 7 mapsedge Aurora +15%9z · 6 maps
Dust29z pick
50%50%
Aurora · 4 mapsnearly even +0%9z · 6 maps
CacheAurora ban
50%57%
Aurora · 6 mapsedge 9z +7%9z · 3 maps
Anubis9z ban
58%50%
Aurora · 8 mapsedge Aurora +8%9z · 0 maps
AncientAurora ban
40%43%
Aurora · 1 mapnearly even -3%9z · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAurora remove Ancient
2. Ban9z remove Anubis
3. PickAurora take Nuke
4. Pick9z take Dust2
5. Ban9z remove Inferno
6. BanAurora remove Cache
DeciderMirage (57% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:3
Aurora 47%9z 53%
The model gave 53% on 9z — the map was taken by Aurora.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
Aurora 55%9z 45%
The model gave 55% on Aurora — the map was taken by Aurora.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora · 72%
Series resultAurora 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2