StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora#6 in the world · win 2:1series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
K27#44 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeK27 ban
46%29%
Aurora · 9 mapsedge Aurora +17%K27 · 10 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%60%
Aurora · 8 mapsedge K27 +10%K27 · 6 maps
MirageK27 pick
60%57%
Aurora · 1 mapnearly even +3%K27 · 10 maps
AncientAurora ban
50%64%
Aurora · 0 mapsedge K27 +14%K27 · 10 maps
AnubisAurora pick
67%43%
Aurora · 5 mapsedge Aurora +24%K27 · 3 maps
OverpassK27 ban
67%60%
Aurora · 2 mapsedge Aurora +7%K27 · 6 maps
CacheAurora ban
50%67%
Aurora · 0 mapsedge K27 +17%K27 · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAurora remove Ancient
2. BanK27 remove Nuke
3. PickAurora take Anubis
4. PickK27 take Mirage
5. BanK27 remove Overpass
6. BanAurora remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
Aurora 50%K27 50%
The model gave 50% on K27 — the map was taken by K27.
Anubisprediction correct13:8
Aurora 75%K27 25%
The model gave 75% on Aurora — the map was taken by Aurora.
Nukeprediction correct13:3
Aurora 68%K27 32%
The model gave 68% on Aurora — the map was taken by Aurora.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora · 81%
Series resultAurora 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3