IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora#6 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Spirit#1 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Spirit pick
44%80%
Aurora · 5 mapsedge Spirit +36%Spirit · 6 maps
MirageAurora ban
60%78%
Aurora · 1 mapedge Spirit +18%Spirit · 5 maps
NukeSpirit ban
44%60%
Aurora · 5 mapsedge Spirit +16%Spirit · 1 map
AncientAurora ban
50%75%
Aurora · 0 mapsedge Spirit +25%Spirit · 4 maps
AnubisAurora pick
67%60%
Aurora · 2 mapsedge Aurora +7%Spirit · 1 map
OverpassSpirit ban
60%40%
Aurora · 1 mapedge Aurora +20%Spirit · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAurora remove Ancient
2. BanSpirit remove Overpass
3. PickAurora take Anubis
4. PickSpirit take Dust2
5. BanSpirit remove Nuke
6. BanAurora remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
Aurora 15%Spirit 85%
The model gave 85% on Spirit — the map was taken by Aurora.
Anubisprediction missed4:13
Aurora 60%Spirit 40%
The model gave 60% on Aurora — the map was taken by Spirit.
Nukeprediction correct5:13
Aurora 35%Spirit 65%
The model gave 65% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit · 63%
Series resultSpirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3