PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora#6 in the world · win 2:0series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Huns#123 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
DefaultThe Huns pick
50%71%
Aurora · 0 mapsedge The Huns +21%The Huns · 3 maps
Dust2Aurora pick
40%33%
Aurora · 1 mapedge Aurora +7%The Huns · 2 maps
AncientThe Huns ban
50%33%
Aurora · 0 mapsedge Aurora +17%The Huns · 2 maps
NukeThe Huns ban
40%40%
Aurora · 1 mapnearly even +0%The Huns · 1 map
MirageAurora ban
50%40%
Aurora · 0 mapsedge Aurora +10%The Huns · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAurora remove Mirage
2. BanThe Huns remove Ancient
3. PickAurora take Dust2
4. PickThe Huns take Default
5. BanThe Huns remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:4
Aurora 47%The Huns 53%
The model gave 53% on The Huns — the map was taken by Aurora.
Dust2prediction correct13:3
Aurora 60%The Huns 40%
The model gave 60% on Aurora — the map was taken by Aurora.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora · 95%
Series resultAurora 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2