ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora#6 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Vitality#2 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageVitality ban
61%62%
Aurora · 14 mapsnearly even -1%Vitality · 9 maps
Dust2Vitality pick
50%76%
Aurora · 8 mapsedge Vitality +26%Vitality · 13 maps
AnubisAurora pick
64%46%
Aurora · 10 mapsedge Aurora +18%Vitality · 9 maps
NukeVitality ban
75%50%
Aurora · 8 mapsedge Aurora +25%Vitality · 8 maps
CacheAurora ban
50%70%
Aurora · 6 mapsedge Vitality +20%Vitality · 6 maps
Infernopossible decider
55%56%
Aurora · 7 mapsnearly even -1%Vitality · 5 maps
AncientAurora ban
40%50%
Aurora · 1 mapedge Vitality +10%Vitality · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAurora remove Ancient
2. BanVitality remove Mirage
3. PickAurora take Anubis
4. PickVitality take Dust2
5. BanVitality remove Nuke
6. BanAurora remove Cache
DeciderInferno (55% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:7
Aurora 70%Vitality 30%
The model gave 70% on Aurora — the map was taken by Aurora.
Cacheprediction correct7:13
Aurora 28%Vitality 72%
The model gave 72% on Vitality — the map was taken by Vitality.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
Aurora 50%Vitality 50%
The model gave 50% on Vitality — the map was taken by Vitality.
Model check result
Model favoriteVitality · 76%
Series resultVitality 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3