NODWIN Clutch Series 13 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Azuolas#191 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Misa#115 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMisa ban
35%44%
Azuolas · 13 mapsedge Misa +9%Misa · 21 map
Dust2Azuolas ban
29%50%
Azuolas · 3 mapsedge Misa +21%Misa · 28 maps
NukeAzuolas pick
44%45%
Azuolas · 12 mapsnearly even -1%Misa · 18 maps
AnubisMisa pick
43%52%
Azuolas · 3 mapsedge Misa +9%Misa · 25 maps
Cachepossible decider
60%43%
Azuolas · 1 mapedge Azuolas +17%Misa · 26 maps
InfernoAzuolas ban
38%56%
Azuolas · 4 mapsedge Misa +18%Misa · 14 maps
AncientMisa ban
36%43%
Azuolas · 7 mapsedge Misa +7%Misa · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAzuolas remove Dust2
2. BanMisa remove Ancient
3. PickAzuolas take Nuke
4. PickMisa take Anubis
5. BanMisa remove Mirage
6. BanAzuolas remove Inferno
DeciderCache (60% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct6:13
Azuolas 30%Misa 70%
The model gave 70% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
Azuolas 46%Misa 54%
The model gave 54% on Misa — the map was taken by Azuolas.
Anubisprediction correct4:13
Azuolas 41%Misa 59%
The model gave 59% on Misa — the map was taken by Misa.
Model check result
Model favoriteMisa · 62%
Series resultMisa 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3