RLG Tesla Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8#22 in the world · win 2:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Alliance#29 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoAlliance pick
50%46%
B8 · 6 mapsnearly even +4%Alliance · 9 maps
MirageB8 pick
47%33%
B8 · 13 mapsedge B8 +14%Alliance · 2 maps
AncientB8 ban
64%50%
B8 · 7 mapsedge B8 +14%Alliance · 6 maps
Dust2Alliance ban
62%25%
B8 · 9 mapsedge B8 +37%Alliance · 4 maps
CacheAlliance ban
56%25%
B8 · 5 mapsedge B8 +31%Alliance · 4 maps
NukeB8 ban
57%57%
B8 · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Alliance · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanB8 remove Nuke
2. BanAlliance remove Cache
3. PickB8 take Mirage
4. PickAlliance take Inferno
5. BanAlliance remove Dust2
6. BanB8 remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed10:13
B8 51%Alliance 49%
The model gave 51% on B8 — the map was taken by Alliance.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
B8 67%Alliance 33%
The model gave 67% on B8 — the map was taken by B8.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
B8 64%Alliance 36%
The model gave 64% on B8 — the map was taken by B8.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 53%
Series resultB8 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3