IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8#15 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
FUT#8 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFUT pick
58%67%
B8 · 8 mapsedge FUT +9%FUT · 5 maps
MirageB8 pick
43%29%
B8 · 10 mapsedge B8 +14%FUT · 3 maps
Overpasspossible decider
56%45%
B8 · 5 mapsedge B8 +11%FUT · 7 maps
NukeB8 ban
50%25%
B8 · 4 mapsedge B8 +25%FUT · 4 maps
Dust2FUT ban
50%50%
B8 · 4 mapsnearly even +0%FUT · 2 maps
InfernoFUT ban
57%50%
B8 · 3 mapsedge B8 +7%FUT · 0 maps
AnubisB8 ban
50%67%
B8 · 0 mapsedge FUT +17%FUT · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanB8 remove Anubis
2. BanFUT remove Inferno
3. PickB8 take Mirage
4. PickFUT take Ancient
5. BanFUT remove Dust2
6. BanB8 remove Nuke
DeciderOverpass (56% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:10
B8 47%FUT 53%
The model gave 53% on FUT — the map was taken by B8.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
B8 68%FUT 32%
The model gave 68% on B8 — the map was taken by FUT.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
B8 41%FUT 59%
The model gave 59% on FUT — the map was taken by FUT.
Model check result
Model favoriteFUT · 51%
Series resultFUT 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3