IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
B8#15 in the world · loss 10:13series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 10:13
M80#27 in the world · win 13:10The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientM80 ban
60%36%
B8 · 6 mapsedge B8 +24%M80 · 7 maps
MirageM80 ban
67%55%
B8 · 5 mapsedge B8 +12%M80 · 7 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%50%
B8 · 1 mapedge B8 +10%M80 · 8 maps
Dust2B8 ban
43%71%
B8 · 3 mapsedge M80 +28%M80 · 3 maps
OverpassM80 ban
57%40%
B8 · 3 mapsedge B8 +17%M80 · 1 map
AnubisB8 ban
50%50%
B8 · 0 mapsnearly even +0%M80 · 2 maps
DefaultB8 ban
50%67%
B8 · 0 mapsedge M80 +17%M80 · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanB8 remove Anubis
2. BanM80 remove Ancient
3. BanB8 remove Default
4. BanM80 remove Overpass
5. BanB8 remove Dust2
6. BanM80 remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
B8 63%M80 37%
The model gave 63% on B8 — the map was taken by M80.
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 · 70%
Series resultM80 10:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1