Esports World Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8#15 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Spirit#1 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2B8 pick
73%63%
B8 · 7 mapsedge B8 +10%Spirit · 12 maps
MirageSpirit pick
23%64%
B8 · 9 mapsedge Spirit +41%Spirit · 10 maps
Ancientpossible decider
47%71%
B8 · 13 mapsedge Spirit +24%Spirit · 3 maps
AnubisB8 ban
50%70%
B8 · 0 mapsedge Spirit +20%Spirit · 6 maps
InfernoSpirit ban
56%50%
B8 · 5 mapsedge B8 +6%Spirit · 0 maps
NukeSpirit ban
67%57%
B8 · 2 mapsedge B8 +10%Spirit · 3 maps
OverpassB8 ban
43%33%
B8 · 3 mapsedge B8 +10%Spirit · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanB8 remove Anubis
2. BanSpirit remove Inferno
3. PickB8 take Dust2
4. PickSpirit take Mirage
5. BanSpirit remove Nuke
6. BanB8 remove Overpass
DeciderAncient (47% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
B8 59%Spirit 41%
The model gave 59% on B8 — the map was taken by Spirit.
Mirageprediction correct9:13
B8 16%Spirit 84%
The model gave 84% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit · 84%
Series resultSpirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2