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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
BAKS#112 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
50%53%
BAKS · 6 mapsnearly even -3%BASEMENT BOYS · 11 maps
NukeBASEMENT BOYS pick
50%63%
BAKS · 4 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +13%BASEMENT BOYS · 12 maps
AncientBASEMENT BOYS ban
71%53%
BAKS · 3 mapsedge BAKS +18%BASEMENT BOYS · 11 maps
MirageBAKS ban
50%57%
BAKS · 4 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +7%BASEMENT BOYS · 10 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
60%40%
BAKS · 6 mapsedge BAKS +20%BASEMENT BOYS · 6 maps
CacheBAKS pick
75%63%
BAKS · 4 mapsedge BAKS +12%BASEMENT BOYS · 4 maps
AnubisBAKS ban
50%60%
BAKS · 0 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%BASEMENT BOYS · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBAKS remove Anubis
2. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
3. PickBAKS take Cache
4. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Nuke
5. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Ancient
6. BanBAKS remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (50% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed5:13
BAKS 67%BASEMENT BOYS 33%
The model gave 67% on BAKS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Nukeprediction missed13:4
BAKS 35%BASEMENT BOYS 65%
The model gave 65% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BAKS.
Dust2prediction correct4:13
BAKS 47%BASEMENT BOYS 53%
The model gave 53% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBAKS · 54%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3