CCT 2026 Europe Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
BAKS#106 in the world · win 2:1series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Illyrians#126 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheBAKS pick
67%67%
BAKS · 26 mapsnearly even +0%Illyrians · 8 maps
Dust2Illyrians pick
38%50%
BAKS · 17 mapsedge Illyrians +12%Illyrians · 16 maps
MirageBAKS ban
67%57%
BAKS · 8 mapsedge BAKS +10%Illyrians · 19 maps
Ancientpossible decider
70%54%
BAKS · 6 mapsedge BAKS +16%Illyrians · 9 maps
NukeIllyrians ban
41%40%
BAKS · 13 mapsnearly even +1%Illyrians · 1 map
InfernoIllyrians ban
31%50%
BAKS · 9 mapsedge Illyrians +19%Illyrians · 2 maps
AnubisBAKS ban
50%70%
BAKS · 0 mapsedge Illyrians +20%Illyrians · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBAKS remove Anubis
2. BanIllyrians remove Nuke
3. PickBAKS take Cache
4. PickIllyrians take Dust2
5. BanIllyrians remove Inferno
6. BanBAKS remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (70% / 54%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed11:13
BAKS 53%Illyrians 47%
The model gave 53% on BAKS — the map was taken by Illyrians.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
BAKS 35%Illyrians 65%
The model gave 65% on Illyrians — the map was taken by BAKS.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
BAKS 61%Illyrians 39%
The model gave 61% on BAKS — the map was taken by BAKS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBAKS · 55%
Series resultBAKS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3