CCT 2026 Europe Series 11 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Illyrians#144 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageIllyrians pick
33%63%
Banda Chuya · 8 mapsedge Illyrians +30%Illyrians · 12 maps
Dust2Banda Chuya ban
63%40%
Banda Chuya · 4 mapsedge Banda Chuya +23%Illyrians · 11 maps
AncientBanda Chuya pick
56%50%
Banda Chuya · 5 mapsedge Banda Chuya +6%Illyrians · 6 maps
AnubisBanda Chuya ban
29%71%
Banda Chuya · 3 mapsedge Illyrians +42%Illyrians · 3 maps
CacheIllyrians ban
29%43%
Banda Chuya · 3 mapsedge Illyrians +14%Illyrians · 3 maps
NukeIllyrians ban
44%40%
Banda Chuya · 5 mapsnearly even +4%Illyrians · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
57%50%
Banda Chuya · 3 mapsedge Banda Chuya +7%Illyrians · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBanda Chuya remove Anubis
2. BanIllyrians remove Nuke
3. PickBanda Chuya take Ancient
4. PickIllyrians take Mirage
5. BanIllyrians remove Cache
6. BanBanda Chuya remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct2:13
Banda Chuya 38%Illyrians 62%
The model gave 62% on Illyrians — the map was taken by Illyrians.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
Banda Chuya 69%Illyrians 31%
The model gave 69% on Banda Chuya — the map was taken by Banda Chuya.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
Banda Chuya 23%Illyrians 77%
The model gave 77% on Illyrians — the map was taken by Illyrians.
Model check result
Model favoriteIllyrians · 57%
Series resultIllyrians 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3