ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
LPH#149 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
50%50%
Banda Chuya · 2 mapsnearly even +0%LPH · 8 maps
Dust2Banda Chuya ban
40%64%
Banda Chuya · 1 mapedge LPH +24%LPH · 7 maps
NukeLPH pick
40%50%
Banda Chuya · 1 mapedge LPH +10%LPH · 6 maps
AnubisLPH ban
40%50%
Banda Chuya · 1 mapedge LPH +10%LPH · 4 maps
InfernoBanda Chuya ban
50%67%
Banda Chuya · 0 mapsedge LPH +17%LPH · 5 maps
MirageLPH ban
33%50%
Banda Chuya · 5 mapsedge LPH +17%LPH · 0 maps
CacheBanda Chuya pick
50%33%
Banda Chuya · 0 mapsedge Banda Chuya +17%LPH · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBanda Chuya remove Inferno
2. BanLPH remove Mirage
3. PickBanda Chuya take Cache
4. PickLPH take Nuke
5. BanLPH remove Anubis
6. BanBanda Chuya remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
Banda Chuya 25%LPH 75%
The model gave 75% on LPH — the map was taken by Banda Chuya.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
Banda Chuya 43%LPH 57%
The model gave 57% on LPH — the map was taken by LPH.
Ancientprediction missed5:13
Banda Chuya 50%LPH 50%
The model gave 50% on Banda Chuya — the map was taken by LPH.
Model check result
Model favoriteLPH · 62%
Series resultLPH 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3