FiRe Last Chance 2026 · BO3
result vs predictionBBARCA#95 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Bounty Hunters#77 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheBARCA pick
50%55%
BARCA · 0 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +5%Bounty Hunters · 18 maps
MirageBounty Hunters pick
40%55%
BARCA · 1 mapedge Bounty Hunters +15%Bounty Hunters · 16 maps
Ancientpossible decider
40%41%
BARCA · 1 mapnearly even -1%Bounty Hunters · 13 maps
NukeBARCA ban
50%44%
BARCA · 0 mapsedge BARCA +6%Bounty Hunters · 14 maps
Dust2Bounty Hunters ban
33%57%
BARCA · 2 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +24%Bounty Hunters · 10 maps
AnubisBARCA ban
50%60%
BARCA · 0 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +10%Bounty Hunters · 6 maps
InfernoBounty Hunters ban
67%50%
BARCA · 2 mapsedge BARCA +17%Bounty Hunters · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBARCA remove Anubis
2. BanBounty Hunters remove Inferno
3. PickBARCA take Cache
4. PickBounty Hunters take Mirage
5. BanBounty Hunters remove Dust2
6. BanBARCA remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (40% / 41%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:10
BARCA 48%Bounty Hunters 52%
The model gave 52% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by BARCA.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
BARCA 25%Bounty Hunters 75%
The model gave 75% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
BARCA 49%Bounty Hunters 51%
The model gave 51% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Model check result
Model favoriteBounty Hunters · 55%
Series resultBounty Hunters 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3