ROG JOURNEY Summer 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Alliance#22 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoAlliance pick
40%77%
BASEMENT BOYS · 6 mapsedge Alliance +37%Alliance · 9 maps
NukeBASEMENT BOYS ban
55%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 7 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +5%Alliance · 8 maps
Dust2BASEMENT BOYS pick
67%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 8 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +17%Alliance · 4 maps
AncientAlliance ban
64%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 7 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +14%Alliance · 4 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%33%
BASEMENT BOYS · 6 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +17%Alliance · 5 maps
MirageAlliance ban
67%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 5 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +17%Alliance · 0 maps
OverpassBASEMENT BOYS ban
40%33%
BASEMENT BOYS · 1 mapedge BASEMENT BOYS +7%Alliance · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Overpass
2. BanAlliance remove Mirage
3. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Dust2
4. PickAlliance take Inferno
5. BanAlliance remove Ancient
6. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Nuke
DeciderAnubis (50% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed4:13
BASEMENT BOYS 58%Alliance 42%
The model gave 58% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by Alliance.
Infernoprediction correct7:13
BASEMENT BOYS 15%Alliance 85%
The model gave 85% on Alliance — the map was taken by Alliance.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 63%
Series resultAlliance 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2