ROG JOURNEY Autumn 2026 · BO1
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · win 13:3series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 13:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
48%40%
BASEMENT BOYS · 19 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +8%Glitch · 1 map
NukeGlitch ban
62%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 17 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +12%Glitch · 0 maps
MirageGlitch ban
60%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 16 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%Glitch · 0 maps
Dust2BASEMENT BOYS ban
53%40%
BASEMENT BOYS · 13 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +13%Glitch · 1 map
CacheGlitch ban
47%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 11 mapsnearly even -3%Glitch · 0 maps
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS ban
56%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 5 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +6%Glitch · 0 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
40%67%
BASEMENT BOYS · 1 mapedge Glitch +27%Glitch · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
2. BanGlitch remove Nuke
3. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Anubis
4. BanGlitch remove Cache
5. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Dust2
6. BanGlitch remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (48% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:3
BASEMENT BOYS 63%Glitch 37%
The model gave 63% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 68%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 13:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1