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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#100 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
mellren#118 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemellren pick
63%77%
BASEMENT BOYS · 12 mapsedge mellren +14%mellren · 9 maps
Ancientpossible decider
47%60%
BASEMENT BOYS · 13 mapsedge mellren +13%mellren · 6 maps
Dust2mellren ban
53%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 11 mapsnearly even +3%mellren · 6 maps
NukeBASEMENT BOYS pick
56%40%
BASEMENT BOYS · 14 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +16%mellren · 1 map
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
38%60%
BASEMENT BOYS · 4 mapsedge mellren +22%mellren · 6 maps
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS ban
56%71%
BASEMENT BOYS · 5 mapsedge mellren +15%mellren · 3 maps
Cachemellren ban
60%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 6 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%mellren · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
2. Banmellren remove Cache
3. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Nuke
4. Pickmellren take Mirage
5. Banmellren remove Dust2
6. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (47% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:5
BASEMENT BOYS 62%mellren 38%
The model gave 62% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Dust2prediction missed3:13
BASEMENT BOYS 56%mellren 44%
The model gave 56% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by mellren.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
BASEMENT BOYS 33%mellren 67%
The model gave 67% on mellren — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 54%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3