LeonBet Masters Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
RBLS#93 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
53%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 13 mapsnearly even +3%RBLS · 4 maps
NukeBASEMENT BOYS pick
63%60%
BASEMENT BOYS · 15 mapsnearly even +3%RBLS · 1 map
AncientBASEMENT BOYS ban
47%67%
BASEMENT BOYS · 13 mapsedge RBLS +20%RBLS · 2 maps
MirageRBLS ban
65%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 13 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +15%RBLS · 0 maps
CacheRBLS ban
60%60%
BASEMENT BOYS · 6 mapsnearly even +0%RBLS · 1 map
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS ban
57%43%
BASEMENT BOYS · 3 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +14%RBLS · 3 maps
DefaultRBLS pick
50%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 2 mapsnearly even +0%RBLS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Anubis
2. BanRBLS remove Mirage
3. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Nuke
4. PickRBLS take Default
5. BanRBLS remove Cache
6. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (53% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed3:13
BASEMENT BOYS 61%RBLS 39%
The model gave 61% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by RBLS.
Cacheprediction correct13:10
BASEMENT BOYS 53%RBLS 47%
The model gave 53% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
BASEMENT BOYS 53%RBLS 47%
The model gave 53% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by RBLS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 52%
Series resultRBLS 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3