ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#100 in the world · win 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
WBT Academy#120 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeBASEMENT BOYS pick
58%43%
BASEMENT BOYS · 15 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +15%WBT Academy · 3 maps
Miragepossible decider
65%67%
BASEMENT BOYS · 13 mapsnearly even -2%WBT Academy · 2 maps
AncientWBT Academy ban
47%40%
BASEMENT BOYS · 13 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +7%WBT Academy · 1 map
Dust2BASEMENT BOYS ban
50%67%
BASEMENT BOYS · 12 mapsedge WBT Academy +17%WBT Academy · 2 maps
AnubisWBT Academy pick
56%38%
BASEMENT BOYS · 5 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +18%WBT Academy · 4 maps
CacheWBT Academy ban
60%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 6 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%WBT Academy · 0 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
38%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 4 mapsedge WBT Academy +12%WBT Academy · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
2. BanWBT Academy remove Cache
3. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Nuke
4. PickWBT Academy take Anubis
5. BanWBT Academy remove Ancient
6. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (65% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed10:13
BASEMENT BOYS 54%WBT Academy 46%
The model gave 54% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by WBT Academy.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
BASEMENT BOYS 67%WBT Academy 33%
The model gave 67% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
BASEMENT BOYS 48%WBT Academy 52%
The model gave 52% on WBT Academy — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 54%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3