NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
BBL#49 in the world · win 1:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:0
BRUTE#74 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeBBL pick
56%62%
BBL · 12 mapsedge BRUTE +6%BRUTE · 9 maps
Dust2BBL ban
50%59%
BBL · 0 mapsedge BRUTE +9%BRUTE · 18 maps
CacheBBL ban
33%50%
BBL · 5 mapsedge BRUTE +17%BRUTE · 10 maps
MirageBRUTE pick
50%62%
BBL · 6 mapsedge BRUTE +12%BRUTE · 9 maps
AnubisBRUTE ban
40%50%
BBL · 1 mapedge BRUTE +10%BRUTE · 10 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%57%
BBL · 6 mapsedge BRUTE +7%BRUTE · 3 maps
AncientBRUTE ban
50%33%
BBL · 4 mapsedge BBL +17%BRUTE · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBBL remove Dust2
2. BanBRUTE remove Ancient
3. PickBBL take Nuke
4. PickBRUTE take Mirage
5. BanBRUTE remove Anubis
6. BanBBL remove Cache
DeciderInferno (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
BBL 50%BRUTE 50%
The model gave 50% on BBL — the map was taken by BBL.
Model check result
Model favoriteBBL · 58%
Series resultBBL 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1