PGL Bucharest 2027 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
BBL#48 in the world · win 2:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeBBL pick
53%54%
BBL · 15 mapsnearly even -1%ex-RUSTEC · 35 maps
Dust2BBL ban
50%54%
BBL · 0 mapsnearly even -4%ex-RUSTEC · 46 maps
MirageBBL ban
40%50%
BBL · 11 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +10%ex-RUSTEC · 22 maps
Anubisex-RUSTEC pick
50%70%
BBL · 2 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +20%ex-RUSTEC · 29 maps
Cachepossible decider
33%47%
BBL · 11 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +14%ex-RUSTEC · 15 maps
Infernoex-RUSTEC ban
57%55%
BBL · 10 mapsnearly even +2%ex-RUSTEC · 16 maps
Ancientex-RUSTEC ban
58%64%
BBL · 8 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +6%ex-RUSTEC · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBBL remove Dust2
2. Banex-RUSTEC remove Ancient
3. PickBBL take Nuke
4. Pickex-RUSTEC take Anubis
5. Banex-RUSTEC remove Inferno
6. BanBBL remove Mirage
DeciderCache (33% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct11:13
BBL 28%ex-RUSTEC 72%
The model gave 72% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by ex-RUSTEC.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
BBL 52%ex-RUSTEC 48%
The model gave 52% on BBL — the map was taken by BBL.
Ancientprediction missed13:3
BBL 44%ex-RUSTEC 56%
The model gave 56% on ex-RUSTEC — the map was taken by BBL.
Model check result
Model favoriteBBL · 61%
Series resultBBL 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3