Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
BBL#48 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HEROIC#25 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeBBL pick
52%75%
BBL · 19 mapsedge HEROIC +23%HEROIC · 8 maps
Ancientpossible decider
62%67%
BBL · 9 mapsedge HEROIC +5%HEROIC · 17 maps
CacheBBL ban
38%67%
BBL · 12 mapsedge HEROIC +29%HEROIC · 14 maps
InfernoHEROIC pick
57%68%
BBL · 10 mapsedge HEROIC +11%HEROIC · 15 maps
MirageHEROIC ban
44%53%
BBL · 14 mapsedge HEROIC +9%HEROIC · 11 maps
Dust2BBL ban
50%57%
BBL · 0 mapsedge HEROIC +7%HEROIC · 17 maps
AnubisHEROIC ban
43%50%
BBL · 3 mapsedge HEROIC +7%HEROIC · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBBL remove Dust2
2. BanHEROIC remove Anubis
3. PickBBL take Nuke
4. PickHEROIC take Inferno
5. BanHEROIC remove Mirage
6. BanBBL remove Cache
DeciderAncient (62% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct9:13
BBL 29%HEROIC 71%
The model gave 71% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Infernoprediction correct12:16
BBL 35%HEROIC 65%
The model gave 65% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 68%
Series resultHEROIC 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2