NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
BBL#49 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SINNERS#45 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
50%58%
BBL · 4 mapsedge SINNERS +8%SINNERS · 15 maps
CacheBBL ban
33%44%
BBL · 5 mapsedge SINNERS +11%SINNERS · 14 maps
Dust2BBL ban
50%65%
BBL · 0 mapsedge SINNERS +15%SINNERS · 19 maps
MirageSINNERS pick
50%53%
BBL · 6 mapsnearly even -3%SINNERS · 13 maps
InfernoSINNERS ban
50%40%
BBL · 6 mapsedge BBL +10%SINNERS · 11 maps
NukeSINNERS ban
56%44%
BBL · 12 mapsedge BBL +12%SINNERS · 5 maps
DefaultBBL pick
67%50%
BBL · 2 mapsedge BBL +17%SINNERS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBBL remove Dust2
2. BanSINNERS remove Nuke
3. PickBBL take Default
4. PickSINNERS take Mirage
5. BanSINNERS remove Inferno
6. BanBBL remove Cache
DeciderAncient (50% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct6:13
BBL 44%SINNERS 56%
The model gave 56% on SINNERS — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Nukeprediction missed2:13
BBL 64%SINNERS 36%
The model gave 64% on BBL — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINNERS · 61%
Series resultSINNERS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2