Stake Ranked Episode 4 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
BBL#62 in the world · win 1:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Walczaki#146 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisWalczaki pick
50%57%
BBL · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +7%Walczaki · 17 maps
NukeBBL pick
40%53%
BBL · 1 mapedge Walczaki +13%Walczaki · 13 maps
Infernopossible decider
40%44%
BBL · 1 mapnearly even -4%Walczaki · 12 maps
Dust2Walczaki ban
50%31%
BBL · 0 mapsedge BBL +19%Walczaki · 9 maps
AncientBBL ban
50%58%
BBL · 0 mapsedge Walczaki +8%Walczaki · 8 maps
CacheBBL ban
50%36%
BBL · 0 mapsedge BBL +14%Walczaki · 7 maps
MirageWalczaki ban
50%50%
BBL · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Walczaki · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBBL remove Cache
2. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
3. PickBBL take Nuke
4. PickWalczaki take Anubis
5. BanWalczaki remove Mirage
6. BanBBL remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (40% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
BBL 50%Walczaki 50%
The model gave 50% on BBL — the map was taken by BBL.
Model check result
Model favoriteBBL · 65%
Series resultBBL 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1