Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · BO1
result vs prediction
BC.Game#51 in the world · win 13:8series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 13:8
Drama#142 in the world · loss 8:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeBC.Game ban
46%70%
BC.Game · 9 mapsedge Drama +24%Drama · 6 maps
Miragepossible decider
60%60%
BC.Game · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Drama · 6 maps
InfernoBC.Game ban
56%30%
BC.Game · 5 mapsedge BC.Game +26%Drama · 6 maps
CacheDrama ban
77%60%
BC.Game · 9 mapsedge BC.Game +17%Drama · 1 map
AncientBC.Game ban
43%60%
BC.Game · 3 mapsedge Drama +17%Drama · 6 maps
Dust2Drama ban
75%33%
BC.Game · 4 mapsedge BC.Game +42%Drama · 5 maps
AnubisDrama ban
40%33%
BC.Game · 1 mapedge BC.Game +7%Drama · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBC.Game remove Ancient
2. BanDrama remove Anubis
3. BanBC.Game remove Nuke
4. BanDrama remove Cache
5. BanBC.Game remove Inferno
6. BanDrama remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
BC.Game 50%Drama 50%
The model gave 50% on BC.Game — the map was taken by BC.Game.
Model check result
Model favoriteBC.Game · 66%
Series resultBC.Game 13:8
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1