Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:1
benched gods#162 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragebenched gods ban
42%38%
Bebop · 15 mapsnearly even +4%benched gods · 4 maps
Dust2Bebop pick
73%50%
Bebop · 11 mapsedge Bebop +23%benched gods · 4 maps
Cachebenched gods pick
50%67%
Bebop · 4 mapsedge benched gods +17%benched gods · 8 maps
Anubispossible decider
33%30%
Bebop · 5 mapsnearly even +3%benched gods · 6 maps
AncientBebop ban
40%50%
Bebop · 1 mapedge benched gods +10%benched gods · 8 maps
Nukebenched gods ban
46%50%
Bebop · 9 mapsnearly even -4%benched gods · 0 maps
InfernoBebop ban
50%57%
Bebop · 4 mapsedge benched gods +7%benched gods · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBebop remove Ancient
2. Banbenched gods remove Nuke
3. PickBebop take Dust2
4. Pickbenched gods take Cache
5. Banbenched gods remove Mirage
6. BanBebop remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (33% / 30%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Bebop 50%benched gods 50%
The model gave 50% on Bebop — the map was taken by benched gods.
Model check result
Model favoritebenched gods · 54%
Series resultbenched gods 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1