NODWIN Clutch Series 11 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Honvéd#144 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Bebop pick
71%60%
Bebop · 10 mapsedge Bebop +11%Honvéd · 26 maps
MirageHonvéd pick
44%46%
Bebop · 14 mapsnearly even -2%Honvéd · 22 maps
NukeHonvéd ban
46%56%
Bebop · 9 mapsedge Honvéd +10%Honvéd · 5 maps
AncientBebop ban
40%53%
Bebop · 1 mapedge Honvéd +13%Honvéd · 11 maps
AnubisBebop ban
33%63%
Bebop · 5 mapsedge Honvéd +30%Honvéd · 4 maps
InfernoHonvéd ban
50%33%
Bebop · 4 mapsedge Bebop +17%Honvéd · 5 maps
Defaultpossible decider
43%67%
Bebop · 3 mapsedge Honvéd +24%Honvéd · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBebop remove Ancient
2. BanHonvéd remove Nuke
3. PickBebop take Dust2
4. PickHonvéd take Mirage
5. BanHonvéd remove Inferno
6. BanBebop remove Anubis
DeciderDefault (43% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
Bebop 65%Honvéd 35%
The model gave 65% on Bebop — the map was taken by Bebop.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
Bebop 45%Honvéd 55%
The model gave 55% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Cacheprediction missed14:16
Bebop 50%Honvéd 50%
The model gave 50% on Bebop — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Model check result
Model favoriteBebop · 51%
Series resultHonvéd 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3