NODWIN Clutch Series 13 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
benched gods#162 in the world · win 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MAYBE#173 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragebenched gods ban
29%53%
benched gods · 13 mapsedge MAYBE +24%MAYBE · 13 maps
AncientMAYBE ban
44%36%
benched gods · 14 mapsedge benched gods +8%MAYBE · 10 maps
Cachebenched gods pick
59%40%
benched gods · 18 mapsedge benched gods +19%MAYBE · 6 maps
AnubisMAYBE pick
50%50%
benched gods · 14 mapsnearly even +0%MAYBE · 4 maps
Dust2benched gods ban
43%42%
benched gods · 10 mapsnearly even +1%MAYBE · 8 maps
Defaultpossible decider
87%60%
benched gods · 11 mapsedge benched gods +27%MAYBE · 1 map
InfernoMAYBE ban
50%50%
benched gods · 4 mapsnearly even +0%MAYBE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banbenched gods remove Mirage
2. BanMAYBE remove Inferno
3. Pickbenched gods take Cache
4. PickMAYBE take Anubis
5. BanMAYBE remove Ancient
6. Banbenched gods remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (87% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
benched gods 25%MAYBE 75%
The model gave 75% on MAYBE — the map was taken by benched gods.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
benched gods 83%MAYBE 17%
The model gave 83% on benched gods — the map was taken by benched gods.
Model check result
Model favoriteMAYBE · 58%
Series resultbenched gods 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2