NODWIN Clutch Series 13 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
benched gods#162 in the world · win 1:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Noir Verse#124 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Cachebenched gods pick
57%50%
benched gods · 17 mapsedge benched gods +7%Noir Verse · 14 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%45%
benched gods · 14 mapsedge benched gods +5%Noir Verse · 16 maps
MirageNoir Verse pick
31%64%
benched gods · 12 mapsedge Noir Verse +33%Noir Verse · 18 maps
Dust2benched gods ban
43%50%
benched gods · 10 mapsedge Noir Verse +7%Noir Verse · 18 maps
AncientNoir Verse ban
47%50%
benched gods · 13 mapsnearly even -3%Noir Verse · 14 maps
DefaultNoir Verse ban
85%44%
benched gods · 9 mapsedge benched gods +41%Noir Verse · 12 maps
Nukebenched gods ban
50%50%
benched gods · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Noir Verse · 10 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banbenched gods remove Nuke
2. BanNoir Verse remove Default
3. Pickbenched gods take Cache
4. PickNoir Verse take Mirage
5. BanNoir Verse remove Ancient
6. Banbenched gods remove Dust2
DeciderAnubis (50% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
benched gods 88%Noir Verse 12%
The model gave 88% on benched gods — the map was taken by benched gods.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoir Verse · 58%
Series resultbenched gods 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1