HyperX Retake Season 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
BERG#192 in the world · win 2:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Famalicão#163 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientBERG pick
47%50%
BERG · 11 mapsnearly even -3%Famalicão · 0 maps
NukeFamalicão pick
33%50%
BERG · 11 mapsedge Famalicão +17%Famalicão · 0 maps
MirageBERG ban
42%50%
BERG · 8 mapsedge Famalicão +8%Famalicão · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
44%50%
BERG · 5 mapsedge Famalicão +6%Famalicão · 0 maps
AnubisBERG ban
38%50%
BERG · 4 mapsedge Famalicão +12%Famalicão · 0 maps
CacheFamalicão ban
60%50%
BERG · 1 mapedge BERG +10%Famalicão · 0 maps
DefaultFamalicão ban
60%50%
BERG · 1 mapedge BERG +10%Famalicão · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBERG remove Anubis
2. BanFamalicão remove Cache
3. PickBERG take Ancient
4. PickFamalicão take Nuke
5. BanFamalicão remove Default
6. BanBERG remove Mirage
DeciderInferno (44% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
BERG 50%Famalicão 50%
The model gave 50% on Famalicão — the map was taken by BERG.
Dust2prediction correct13:16
BERG 47%Famalicão 53%
The model gave 53% on Famalicão — the map was taken by Famalicão.
Infernoprediction missed13:7
BERG 44%Famalicão 56%
The model gave 56% on Famalicão — the map was taken by BERG.
Model check result
Model favoriteBERG · 61%
Series resultBERG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3