ESEA Advanced Season 58 Europe · BO3
result vs prediction
BERG#192 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OLDBOYS PL#196 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
36%57%
BERG · 10 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +21%OLDBOYS PL · 3 maps
AncientBERG pick
50%50%
BERG · 10 mapsnearly even +0%OLDBOYS PL · 2 maps
MirageBERG ban
42%40%
BERG · 8 mapsnearly even +2%OLDBOYS PL · 1 map
AnubisBERG ban
38%60%
BERG · 4 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +22%OLDBOYS PL · 1 map
InfernoOLDBOYS PL ban
44%50%
BERG · 5 mapsedge OLDBOYS PL +6%OLDBOYS PL · 0 maps
CacheOLDBOYS PL pick
60%60%
BERG · 1 mapnearly even +0%OLDBOYS PL · 1 map
DefaultOLDBOYS PL ban
60%50%
BERG · 1 mapedge BERG +10%OLDBOYS PL · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBERG remove Anubis
2. BanOLDBOYS PL remove Inferno
3. PickBERG take Ancient
4. PickOLDBOYS PL take Cache
5. BanOLDBOYS PL remove Default
6. BanBERG remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (36% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct5:13
BERG 27%OLDBOYS PL 73%
The model gave 73% on OLDBOYS PL — the map was taken by OLDBOYS PL.
Ancientprediction missed4:13
BERG 53%OLDBOYS PL 47%
The model gave 53% on BERG — the map was taken by OLDBOYS PL.
Model check result
Model favoriteOLDBOYS PL · 51%
Series resultOLDBOYS PL 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2