BetBoom Storm Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
BESTIA#65 in the world · win 2:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ALKA#129 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BESTIA pick
71%64%
BESTIA · 17 mapsedge BESTIA +7%ALKA · 10 maps
NukeALKA ban
64%54%
BESTIA · 7 mapsedge BESTIA +10%ALKA · 9 maps
AncientALKA pick
56%62%
BESTIA · 5 mapsedge ALKA +6%ALKA · 9 maps
InfernoBESTIA ban
40%64%
BESTIA · 6 mapsedge ALKA +24%ALKA · 7 maps
MirageALKA ban
67%55%
BESTIA · 5 mapsedge BESTIA +12%ALKA · 7 maps
Cachepossible decider
44%50%
BESTIA · 5 mapsedge ALKA +6%ALKA · 2 maps
AnubisBESTIA ban
50%40%
BESTIA · 0 mapsedge BESTIA +10%ALKA · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBESTIA remove Anubis
2. BanALKA remove Mirage
3. PickBESTIA take Dust2
4. PickALKA take Ancient
5. BanALKA remove Nuke
6. BanBESTIA remove Inferno
DeciderCache (44% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct8:13
BESTIA 42%ALKA 58%
The model gave 58% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
BESTIA 61%ALKA 39%
The model gave 61% on BESTIA — the map was taken by BESTIA.
Ancientprediction missed19:15
BESTIA 44%ALKA 56%
The model gave 56% on ALKA — the map was taken by BESTIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteBESTIA · 66%
Series resultBESTIA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3