Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
BESTIA#65 in the world · win 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CLANSBRloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2CLANSBR ban
68%50%
BESTIA · 15 mapsedge BESTIA +18%CLANSBR · 0 maps
CacheCLANSBR pick
36%50%
BESTIA · 7 mapsedge CLANSBR +14%CLANSBR · 0 maps
AncientCLANSBR ban
50%50%
BESTIA · 6 mapsnearly even +0%CLANSBR · 0 maps
InfernoBESTIA ban
44%50%
BESTIA · 5 mapsedge CLANSBR +6%CLANSBR · 0 maps
MirageBESTIA ban
44%50%
BESTIA · 5 mapsedge CLANSBR +6%CLANSBR · 0 maps
NukeBESTIA pick
67%50%
BESTIA · 5 mapsedge BESTIA +17%CLANSBR · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBESTIA remove Inferno
2. BanCLANSBR remove Dust2
3. PickBESTIA take Nuke
4. PickCLANSBR take Cache
5. BanCLANSBR remove Ancient
6. BanBESTIA remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:3
BESTIA 42%CLANSBR 58%
The model gave 58% on CLANSBR — the map was taken by BESTIA.
Mirageprediction missed13:2
BESTIA 47%CLANSBR 53%
The model gave 53% on CLANSBR — the map was taken by BESTIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteBESTIA · 72%
Series resultBESTIA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2