Circuit X Curitiba Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
BESTIA#67 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Imperial#50 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
56%67%
BESTIA · 12 mapsedge Imperial +11%Imperial · 20 maps
InfernoImperial ban
69%56%
BESTIA · 9 mapsedge BESTIA +13%Imperial · 21 map
Dust2BESTIA pick
61%67%
BESTIA · 14 mapsedge Imperial +6%Imperial · 14 maps
NukeImperial pick
56%70%
BESTIA · 5 mapsedge Imperial +14%Imperial · 16 maps
CacheBESTIA ban
42%67%
BESTIA · 8 mapsedge Imperial +25%Imperial · 11 maps
AnubisBESTIA ban
50%62%
BESTIA · 0 mapsedge Imperial +12%Imperial · 9 maps
AncientImperial ban
50%50%
BESTIA · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Imperial · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBESTIA remove Anubis
2. BanImperial remove Ancient
3. PickBESTIA take Dust2
4. PickImperial take Nuke
5. BanImperial remove Inferno
6. BanBESTIA remove Cache
DeciderMirage (56% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
BESTIA 32%Imperial 68%
The model gave 68% on Imperial — the map was taken by Imperial.
Dust2prediction correct12:16
BESTIA 47%Imperial 53%
The model gave 53% on Imperial — the map was taken by Imperial.
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial · 63%
Series resultImperial 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2